Relationship between solar activity, forest fire smoke and the incidence of tumors of the central nervous system in Russia
- Authors: Pinaev S.K.1, Kaprin A.D.2, Starinskiy V.V.2, Chizhov A.Y.3,4,5, Pinaeva O.G.1
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Affiliations:
- Far Eastern State Medical University
- Moscow Research Oncology Institute named after P.A. Herzen — branch of the National Medical Center of Radiology of the Ministry of Health of Russia
- Peoples' Friendship University of Russia
- Medical and environmental center “Mountain air XXI century”
- State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation — Federal Medical Biophysical Center named after A.I. Burnazyan
- Issue: Vol 104, No 6 (2023)
- Pages: 927-933
- Section: Social hygiene and healthcare management
- URL: https://kazanmedjournal.ru/kazanmedj/article/view/568997
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.17816/KMJ568997
- ID: 568997
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Open Access
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Abstract
Background. Studying the causes of tumors of the central nervous system is necessary to increase the effectiveness of this pathology prevention.
Aim. To study the relationship between solar activity and forest fire smoke and the incidence of tumors of the central nervous system in Russia.
Material and methods. Data on the incidence of tumors of the central nervous system in Russia in 1990–2019 were provided by the Moscow Research Oncological Institute named after P.A. Herzen. Information on solar activity (average annual Wolf numbers) and the number of forest fires was obtained from open sources. A Pearson correlation analysis of time series of environmental factors intensity and morbidity was carried out in 11 iterations with a time delay of 0–10 years. The average values of connection strength and lags were calculated using the method of moments.
Results. A relationship between the number of forest fires and the incidence of tumors of the central nervous system was identified in 34 regions. The average correlation coefficient at the age of 0–4 years was 0.543±0.042 (lag 5.6±2.2); in 0–14 years — 0.492±0.039 (lag 3.1±0.8), in 0–85+ years — 0.549±0.059 (lag 4.8±1.5). The connection between solar activity and the incidence of tumors of the central nervous system in the 1st decade of the study (1990–1999) was found in 39 regions of Russia, in the 2nd and 3rd decades — in 45 regions. The average correlation coefficient was 0.704–0.767. In the full-age (0–85+ years) population of Russia, a trend toward an increase in the strength of the connection was revealed over time: in the 1st decade (1990–1999) r=0.719; in the 2nd (2000–2009) r=0.871; in the 3rd (2010–2019) r=0.899. The lag value, on the contrary, decreased from 6 years in 1990–2009 to 3 years in 2010–2019.
Conclusion. The incidence of central nervous system tumors in Russia correlates with the number of forest fires and solar activity. Further research is needed to clarify cause-and-effect relationships.
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About the authors
Sergey K. Pinaev
Far Eastern State Medical University
Author for correspondence.
Email: pinaev@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0774-2376
Scopus Author ID: 56291097200
ResearcherId: J-5942-2018
M.D., Cand. Sci. (Med.), Assoc. Prof., Depart. of Oncology with a Course of Surgery and Endoscopy of Additional Postgraduate Education
Russian Federation, Khabarovsk, RussiaAndrey D. Kaprin
Moscow Research Oncology Institute named after P.A. Herzen — branch of the National Medical Center of Radiology of the Ministry of Health of Russia
Email: contact@nmicr.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8784-8415
SPIN-code: 1759-8101
M.D., D. Sci. (Med.), Prof., Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director
Russian Federation, Moscow, RussiaValery V. Starinskiy
Moscow Research Oncology Institute named after P.A. Herzen — branch of the National Medical Center of Radiology of the Ministry of Health of Russia
Email: valstar40@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0268-8307
SPIN-code: 9722-6410
M.D., D. Sci. (Med.), Prof., Deputy General Director for Research
Russian Federation, Moscow, RussiaAlexey Ya. Chizhov
Peoples' Friendship University of Russia; Medical and environmental center “Mountain air XXI century”; State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation — Federal Medical Biophysical Center named after A.I. Burnazyan
Email: ma21@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0542-1552
SPIN-code: 6701-2688
Scopus Author ID: 57205541090
ResearcherId: L-6981-2016
M.D., D. Sci. (Med.), Prof., Institute of Ecology
Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia; Moscow, Russia; Moscow, RussiaOlga G. Pinaeva
Far Eastern State Medical University
Email: pinaeva_og@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9676-845X
SPIN-code: 1678-3743
Scopus Author ID: 56290752700
ResearcherId: AAC-3445-2020
M.D., Cand. Sci. (Med.), Assoc. Prof., Depart. of Normal and Pathological Physiology
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