Trends and Forecast of Mortality Rates Among Working-Age Men and Women Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Studying mortality indicators among the working-age population, with its structure and characteristics by sex and age groups considered, provides basis for addressing organizational issues related to workforce preservation and health protection.

AIM: To analyze mortality indicators among the working-age population in the Republic of Tatarstan by sex, age, and causes of death from 2013 to 2023.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data were obtained from the Federal State Statistics Service, Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System, Territorial Body of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Republic of Tatarstan, and Ministry of Health of the Republic of Tatarstan. Social and hygienic, statistical, and analytical approaches were employed. Student’s t-test was used to assess the significance of differences, and mortality trends were evaluated using least squares regression with built-in Microsoft Excel functions.

RESULTS: The all-cause mortality among the working-age population decreased in 2013–2019. The highest mortality rates were noted during the peaks of the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2020 and 2021 (462.0 and 514.3 per 100,000 population, respectively). Excess mortality was attributed to COVID-19 and cardiovascular diseases. Mortality rate changes among the working-age population since 2013 demonstrated a linear trend with a positive forecast through 2026, indicating a decrease in all-cause mortality regardless of sex.

CONCLUSION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, up to 2023, higher excess mortality rates were observed among working-age men, resulting in a mortality rate 3.8 times higher than that of women aged over 35 years.

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About the authors

Ramil U. Khabriev

N.A. Semashko National Research Institute of Public Health

Email: institute@nriph.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2283-376X
SPIN-code: 9245-9761

MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine), Professor, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Scientific Supervisor

Russian Federation, Moscow, 105064

Alexey E. Krasnov

State Research Center — Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center

Author for correspondence.
Email: aekmu@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7718-1650
SPIN-code: 9373-5370

Post-graduate student Depart. of Public Health and Healthcare, Cardiologist

Russian Federation, 46 Zhivopisnaya st, bldg 8, Moscow, 123098

Elmira N. Mingazova

N.A. Semashko National Research Institute of Public Health; Kazan State Medical University

Email: elmira_mingazova@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8558-8928
SPIN-code: 8048-2059

MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine), Professor, Corresponding Member of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tatarstan, Senior Research Associate

Russian Federation, Moscow, 105064; 49 Butlerova st, Kazan, 420012

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2. Fig. 1. Trends and forecast of mortality rates among the working-age population in the Republic of Tatarstan and Russian Federation, 2013–2026 (per 100,000 population).

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