Trends and Forecast of Mortality Rates Among Working-Age Men and Women Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Cover Page


Cite item

Full Text

Open Access Open Access
Restricted Access Access granted
Restricted Access Subscription or Fee Access

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Studying mortality indicators among the working-age population, with its structure and characteristics by sex and age groups considered, provides basis for addressing organizational issues related to workforce preservation and health protection.

AIM: To analyze mortality indicators among the working-age population in the Republic of Tatarstan by sex, age, and causes of death from 2013 to 2023.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data were obtained from the Federal State Statistics Service, Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System, Territorial Body of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Republic of Tatarstan, and Ministry of Health of the Republic of Tatarstan. Social and hygienic, statistical, and analytical approaches were employed. Student’s t-test was used to assess the significance of differences, and mortality trends were evaluated using least squares regression with built-in Microsoft Excel functions.

RESULTS: The all-cause mortality among the working-age population decreased in 2013–2019. The highest mortality rates were noted during the peaks of the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2020 and 2021 (462.0 and 514.3 per 100,000 population, respectively). Excess mortality was attributed to COVID-19 and cardiovascular diseases. Mortality rate changes among the working-age population since 2013 demonstrated a linear trend with a positive forecast through 2026, indicating a decrease in all-cause mortality regardless of sex.

CONCLUSION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, up to 2023, higher excess mortality rates were observed among working-age men, resulting in a mortality rate 3.8 times higher than that of women aged over 35 years.

Full Text

Restricted Access

About the authors

Ramil U. Khabriev

N.A. Semashko National Research Institute of Public Health

Email: institute@nriph.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2283-376X
SPIN-code: 9245-9761

MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine), Professor, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Scientific Supervisor

Russian Federation, Moscow, 105064

Alexey E. Krasnov

State Research Center — Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center

Author for correspondence.
Email: aekmu@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7718-1650
SPIN-code: 9373-5370

Post-graduate student Depart. of Public Health and Healthcare, Cardiologist

Russian Federation, 46 Zhivopisnaya st, bldg 8, Moscow, 123098

Elmira N. Mingazova

N.A. Semashko National Research Institute of Public Health; Kazan State Medical University

Email: elmira_mingazova@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8558-8928
SPIN-code: 8048-2059

MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine), Professor, Corresponding Member of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tatarstan, Senior Research Associate

Russian Federation, Moscow, 105064; 49 Butlerova st, Kazan, 420012

References

  1. Askarov RA, Lakman IA, Askarova ZF, Bakirov BA. Integral assessment of the effects of socio-economic and ecological factors on mortality. Economics and Management: Research and Practice Journal. 2019;6(150):144–148. doi: 10.33396/1728-0869-2020-4-4-11 EDN: PTSSDR
  2. Krasnov AE, Mingazova EN. Indicators of primary medical and sanitary assistance to the population considering the medicodemographic characteristics of the regio. Manager Zdravoohranenia. 2023;11:10–16. doi: 10.21045/1811-0185-2023-11-10-16 EDN: AEPELP
  3. Sharapova OV, Samoilova AV, Mingazova EN, Gerasimova LI. Cartographical analysis of the status of indicators of total morbidity and mortality of population in subjects of the Russian Federation for 10 years. Problems of Social Hygiene, Public Health and History of Medicine. 2020;28(S):822–826. doi: 10.32687/0869-866X-2020-28-s1-822-826 EDN: ZDLWJW
  4. Kizeev MV, Lazarev AV, Valeev VV, et al. The age-related features of the morbidity of the population in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. Problems of Social Hygiene, Public Health and History of Medicine. 2022;30(S):1023–1026. doi: 10.32687/0869-866X-2022-30-s1-1023-1026 EDN: QVBDLI
  5. Krasnov AE, Mingazova EN. Mortality in the 21st century: regional features. Bulletin of Semashko National Research Institute of Public Health. 2024;1:96–101. doi: 10.25742/NRIPH.2024.01.014 EDN: KDRAJH
  6. Tafeeva EA, Frolova OA, Frolov DN, Yangirova EKh. The trends of the medical demographic indices in the Republic of Tatarstan. The Bulletin of Contemporary Clinical Medicine. 2023;16(1):95–100. doi: 10.20969/VSKM.2023.16(1).95-100 EDN: UKITSD
  7. Yarullin AK, Karpukhin EV, Mingazova EN. Reproductive and demographic processes in the Republic of Tatarstan. Moscow: Publishing house “Medicine”; 1998. 114 p. (In Russ.)
  8. Khabriev RU, Mingazova EN, Shigabutdinova TN. The main trends of medical and indicators in the Republic of Tatarstan 1991–2018. Public Health and Health Care. 2019;3(63):5–10. (In Russ.) EDN: BGZUTJ
  9. Boytsov SA, Drapkina OM, Shlyakhto EV, Konradi AO. Epidemiology of cardiovascular diseases and risk factors in the regions of the Russian Federation). Ten years later. Cardiovascular Therapy and Prevention. 2021;20(5):3007. doi: 10.15829/1728-8800-2021-3007 EDN: ZPGROP

Supplementary files

Supplementary Files
Action
1. JATS XML
2. Fig. 1. Trends and forecast of mortality rates among the working-age population in the Republic of Tatarstan and Russian Federation, 2013–2026 (per 100,000 population).

Download (149KB)

© 2025 Eco-Vector