Comparative analysis of the relationship between leukemia trends with forest fires and solar activity in different age groups

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  • Authors: Pinaev S.K.1, Starinsky V.V.2, Chizhov A.Y.3,4,5, Pinaeva O.G.1
  • Affiliations:
    1. Far Eastern State Medical University
    2. Moscow Research Oncology Institute named after P.A. Hertsen, branch of the Federal State Budgetary Institution National Medical Research Center of Radiology
    3. Peoples' friendship university of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba
    4. Medical and environmental center “Mountain air XXI century”
    5. State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation — Federal Medical Biophysical Center named after A.I. Burnazyan
  • Issue: Vol 105, No 3 (2024)
  • Pages: 433-442
  • Section: Theoretical and clinical medicine
  • Submitted: 08.01.2024
  • Accepted: 21.04.2024
  • Published: 03.06.2024
  • URL: https://kazanmedjournal.ru/kazanmedj/article/view/625488
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.17816/KMJ625488
  • ID: 625488


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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Studying the etiology of leukemia is necessary to develop measures to prevent this pathology.

AIM: Conduct a comparative analysis of the relationship between trends in the incidence of leukemia with forest fires and solar activity in different age groups.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: Information on the incidence of leukemia in Russia in 1990–2019 was provided by the Moscow Research Oncological Institute named after P.A. Hertsen. Data on solar activity (Wolf numbers) and the number of forest fires were taken from open sources. A Pearson correlation analysis of dynamic series of environmental factors and the incidence of leukemia was carried out in 11 iterations with a time delay (lag) of 0–10 years. The obtained data was compared with similar information for the regions of Russia, the USA and Canada.

RESULTS: A trend towards an increase in the incidence of leukemia in children and adults has been established in the populations of Russia, the USA and Canada. A relationship between the number of forest fires and the incidence of leukemia was found in 35 regions of Russia; the average correlation coefficient and lag were comparable to those previously identified in the Khabarovsk Territory. The correlation of Wolf numbers with the frequency of leukemia has been established in pediatric and full-age populations of Russia, Canada and the USA. In the full-age population of Russia, a tendency towards an increased connection between the frequency of leukemia and solar activity was revealed: in 1990–1999, the correlation was 0.697; in 2000–2009 it increased to 0.815; in 2010–2019 reached a very strong level (0.920), while the lag decreased from 6 to 4 years.

CONCLUSION: Fluctuations in the incidence of leukemia in all age groups in Russia correlate with the number of forest fires and solar activity.

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About the authors

Sergey K. Pinaev

Far Eastern State Medical University

Author for correspondence.
Email: pinaev@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0774-2376
SPIN-code: 3986-4244
Scopus Author ID: 56291097200
ResearcherId: J-5942-2018

MD, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Assoc. Prof., Depart. of Oncology with a course of surgery and endoscopy of additional postgraduate education

Russian Federation, Khabarovsk

Valery V. Starinsky

Moscow Research Oncology Institute named after P.A. Hertsen, branch of the Federal State Budgetary Institution National Medical Research Center of Radiology

Email: valstar40@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0268-8307
SPIN-code: 9722-6410

MD, Dr. Sci. (Med.), Prof., Deputy General Director for Research

Russian Federation, Moscow

Alexey Ya. Chizhov

Peoples' friendship university of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba; Medical and environmental center “Mountain air XXI century”; State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation — Federal Medical Biophysical Center named after A.I. Burnazyan

Email: ma21@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0542-1552
SPIN-code: 6701-2688
Scopus Author ID: 57205541090
ResearcherId: L-6981-2016

MD, Dr. Sci. (Med.), Prof.

Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow; Moscow

Olga G. Pinaeva

Far Eastern State Medical University

Email: pinaeva_og@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9676-845X
SPIN-code: 1678-3743
Scopus Author ID: 56290752700
ResearcherId: AAC-3445-2020

MD, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Assoc. Prof., Depart. of Normal and Pathological Physiology

Russian Federation, Khabarovsk

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. Dynamics of leukemia incidence in Russia in 1990–2019. (crude rate per 100 thousand people per year, both sexes)

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3. Fig. 2. Comparative dynamics of solar activity (Wolf numbers ×10–2+7) and leukemia incidence in Russia in 2010–2019 (crude rate per 100 thousand people per year, both sexes, lag 4 years)

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4. Fig. 3. Dynamics of solar activity in cycles 22–24

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