Prediction of temporary disability due to of circulatory system diseases in housing and communal services employees
- Authors: Bendyuk GY.1, Grishina NK2, Dokhov MA1,3, Sidorov AA1
-
Affiliations:
- Medical and Sanitary Unit of State Unitary Enterprise “Vodokanal of St. Petersburg”
- N.A. Semashko National Research Institute of Public Health
- Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University
- Issue: Vol 101, No 5 (2020)
- Pages: 734-739
- Section: Social hygiene and healthcare management
- Submitted: 02.07.2020
- Accepted: 01.09.2020
- Published: 27.10.2020
- URL: https://kazanmedjournal.ru/kazanmedj/article/view/34915
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.17816/KMJ2020-734
- ID: 34915
Cite item
Abstract
Aim. To develop a prognostic model of incidence of temporary (short-term) disability due to cardiovascular diseases in a housing and communal services employees using the example of the State Unitary Enterprise (SUE) “Vodokanal of St. Petersburg”.
Methods. The study included 4634 people, observed in the departmental outpatient clinic of SUE “Vodokanal of St. Petersburg”, between 2015 and 2017 years. We calculated extensive indicators determining the disease patterns and intensive indicators characterizing the prevalence of the pathological process in the study of morbidity by the findings of periodic health examinations and incidence of short-term disability. The incidence of short-term disability was predicted by using the method of sequential analysis A. Wald modified by E.V. Gubler and the neural network.
Results. We found that based on the operational and statistical data of the medical and sanitary unit, using a neural network, relying on linear and nonlinear dependence of comorbidity, in particular, respiratory diseases, it is possible to predict (in 92.4% of cases) the incidence of temporary disability due to cardiovascular diseases in employees of the housing and communal services SUE “Vodokanal of St. Petersburg”. The high sensitivity (97.7%) and specificity (90.7%) of the method allows it to predict the need for treatment and prophylaxis measures in the contingent attached to the medical and sanitary unit.
Conclusion. The developed model allows to determine the main directions of preventive work to reduce the incidence of circulatory system diseases with temporary disability: prevention of high blood pressure and respiratory diseases.
Full Text
About the authors
G Ya Bendyuk
Medical and Sanitary Unit of State Unitary Enterprise “Vodokanal of St. Petersburg”
Email: mad20@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Saint Petersburg, Russia
N K Grishina
N.A. Semashko National Research Institute of Public Health
Email: mad20@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
M A Dokhov
Medical and Sanitary Unit of State Unitary Enterprise “Vodokanal of St. Petersburg”; Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University
Author for correspondence.
Email: mad20@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Saint Petersburg, Russia; Saint Petersburg, Russia
A A Sidorov
Medical and Sanitary Unit of State Unitary Enterprise “Vodokanal of St. Petersburg”
Email: mad20@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Saint Petersburg, Russia
References
- Belyalov F.I. Internal diseases and comorbidity. Vestnik sovremennoi klinicheskoi mediciny. 2010; 3 (2): 44–47. (In Russ.)
- Samorodskaya I.V., Nikiforova M.A. Terminology and methods of assessment of influence of comorbidity on prognosis and outcomes of treatment. The bulletin of Bakoulev center cardiovascular diseases. 2013; 14 (4): 18–26. (In Russ.)
- Efros L.A., Naumova O.A., Zhdanova E.A., Andrienko S.V. Clinical aspects and approaches to expressiveness assessment of comorbidity of patients with acute coronary syndrome. Ural Medical Journal. 2018; (10): 81–89. (In Russ.) doi: 10.25694/URMJ.2018.10.26.
- Boytsov S.A., Deev A.D., Shalnova S.A. Mortality and risk factors for non-communicable diseases in Russia: Specific features, trends, and prognosis. Therapeutic archive. 2017; (1): 5–14. (In Russ.) doi: 10.17116/terarkh20178915-13.
- Boytsov S.A., Shalnova S.A., Deev A.D. The epidemiological situation as a factor determining the strategy for reducing mortality in the Russian Federation. Therapeutic archive. 2020; (1): 4–9. (In Russ.) doi: 10.26442/00403660.2020.01.000510.
- Rakitsky V.N., Lipatova L.V., Izmaylova O.A. The prevention of cardio-vascular diseases in workers of enterprises of mining industry. Zdravookhranenie Rossiyskoy Federatsii. 2016; (1): 10–12. (In Russ.) doi: 10.18821/0044-197X-2016-60-1-10-12.
- Karimova L.K., Gimaeva Z.F., Galimova R.R. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in workers in petrochemical industries and development of a cardiovascular disease prevention program. Hygiene and sanitation. 2019; 98 (9): 978–983. (In Russ.) doi: 10.18821/0016-9900-2019-98-9-978-983.
- Averyanova T.A., Trufanova N.L., Poteryaeva E.L. Estimation of efficiency of technologies for prophylaxis and sanitation of medical workers in large medical organization. Journal of Siberian Medical Sciences. 2012; 5: 75–79. (In Russ.)
- Pyrikova N.V., Osipova I.V., Kontsevaya A.V. et al. Clinical and economic efficacy of primary prediction organisational model for cardiovascular diseases in railway system workers. Russian Journal of Cardiology. 2014; (6): 12–18. (In Russ.) doi: 10.15829/1560-4071-2014-6-12-18.
- Suvorova E.I., Shalnova S.A., Kontsevaya A.V. et al. Association of risk factors for non-communicable diseases with health care resources utilization and temporary disability according to data of population study in Russian Federation. Rational Pharmacotherapy in Cardiology. 2018; 14: 70–76. (In Russ.) doi: 10.20996/1819-6446-2018-14-1-70-76.
- Pyrikova N.V., Kontsevaya A.V., Osipova I.V. Clinical and economic analysis of the implementation of primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in an organized team. Bulletin of medical science. 2018; (4): 60–66. (In Russ.)
- Belyalov F.I. Prediction of diseases using scales. Kompleksnye problemy serdečno-sosudistyh zabolevanij. 2018; 7 (1): 84–93. (In Russ.) doi: 10.17802/2306-1278-2018-7-1-84-93.
- Petri A., Sabin K. Naglyadnaya meditsinskaya statistika. (Visual medical statistics.) M.: GEOTAR-Media. 2015; 216 р. (In Russ.)
- Gubler E.V. Informatika v patologii, klinicheskoy meditsine i pediatrii. (Computer science in pathology, clinical medicine and pediatrics.) Leningrad: Medicine. 1990; 176 р. (In Russ.)
- Galushkin A.I. Neyronnye seti: osnovy teorii. (Neural networks: the basics of theory.) M.: Hotline — Telecom. 2017; 496 р. (In Russ.)
- Bendyuk G.Ya., Dohov M.A., Sidorov A.A. Analysis of pathologies among workers of a large enterprise of housing and communal services based on the results of periodic medical examinations. Kazan Medical Journal. 2019; (4): 695–700. (In Russ.) doi: 10.17816/KMJ2019-695.
- Zakharova R.R., Kalimullina G.N., Romanov V.S. Working conditions and health status of oil refining workers. Occupational medicine and human ecology. 2015; (4): 120–122. (In Russ.)
- Bespalova A.V., Kononenko T.V. Trends in morbidity with temporary disability of railway workers working at the st. Fevralsk. Vestnik obshchestvennogo zdravookhraneniya Dal'nego Vostoka Rossii. 2017; (4): 5–14. (In Russ.)
- Vertkin A.L., Skotnikov A.S. Comorbidity. Lechaschiy vrach. 2013; (8): 78–81. (In Russ.)
- Naumova L.A., Osipova O.N. Comorbidity: mechanisms of pathogenesis, clinical significance. Modern problems of science and education. 2016; (5): 105–119. (In Russ.)