Kazan medical journalKazan medical journal0368-48142587-9359Eco-Vector146410.17816/KMJ1464Research ArticleMathematical model for predicting the length of hospital stay after performing high-tech operations for arrhythmia correctionBasovaL Amativala@mail.ruKaryakinaO E-KochorovaL V-MartynovaN A-KalininA G-Northern state medical university, Arkhangelsk, RussiaNorthern (Arctic) Federal University, Arkhangelsk, Russia1st State Medical University of Saint Petersburg named after academician I.P. Pavlov, Saint Petersburg, RussiaArkhangelsk Scientific Center, Ural branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Arkhangelsk, Russia15022014951919428032016Copyright © 2014, Basova L.A., Karyakina O.E., Kochorova L.V., Martynova N.A., Kalinin A.G.2014Aim. To create a mathematical model for predicting the length of post-operative treatment after performing high-tech surgeries for arrhythmia treatment. Methods. To predict the in-patient treatment duration after performing high-tech surgeries for arrhythmia treatment, the data set was checked for normality of sample variance distribution and for variability, discriminant function analysis, variability analysis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, crosstab Pearson’s chi-squared test were performed. Normally distributed quantitative parameters are presented as M±m (m - standard error). Cross-sectional prospective study including the data of 345 patients aged 20 to 88 years (males 42.0%, females 58.0%) who underwent high-tech surgeries for arrhythmia treatment, was performed for modeling. Results. It was found that the main category of patients who require surgery for cardiac arrhythmia treatment were women aged 61 to 75 years (mean 68±7 years). Pacemaker implantation was the most common surgery type (47.0%, 162 patients), followed by radiofrequency ablation (31.0%, 107 patients) and encircling pulmonary veins isolation (22.0%, 76 patients). It was also found that the presence of postoperative complications after implantation of the pacemaker directly influencing treatment duration, increasing it almost twice fold (to an average of 14.2±5.1 days compared to 7.4±1.2 days in patients without complications, p=0.02). Statistical analysis allowed to identify five levels characterizing the duration of in-patient post-operative management. An automated software module for risk assessment in patients admitted for high-tech surgeries for arrhythmia treatment was created basing on the results of the study. The precision of the model reached 87% (mean value 84.7%). Conclusion. An automated software module for predicting the length of in-patient post-operative treatment allows to stratify the risk of post-surgical complications for patients and shows the influence of those risks on the use of hospital beds, medical aid management and funding of high-tech surgeries by obligatory health insurance funds.mathematical predictionhigh-tech heart surgerydiscriminant analysisrisk factorsduration of post-operative treatmentматематическое моделированиевысокотехнологичные операции на сердцедискриминантный анализфакторы рискадлительность послеоперационного лечения[Заболеваемость населения по основным классам болезней в 2000-2010 гг. // Мед. статистика и оргметодработа в учрежд. здравоохр. - 2011. - №9. - С. 59-60.][Зволинская Е.У., Александров А.А. Оценка риска развития сердечно-сосудистых заболеваний // Кардиология. - 2010. - №8. - С. 37-47.][Карякина О.Е., Добродеева Л.К., Мартынова Н.А. и др. Применение математических моделей в клинической практике // Экол. человека. - 2012. - №7. - С. 55-64.][Комаров А.Л., Шахматова О.О., Стамбольский Д.В. Факторы риска тромботических осложнений и прогноз у больных с хронической формой ишемической болезни сердца // Кардиология. - 2009. - №11. - С. 4-10.][Комаров А.Л., Шахматова О.О., Стамбольский Д.В. Факторы, определяющие прогноз у больных со стабильной формой ишемической болезни сердца (по результатам пятилетнего проспективного наблюдения) // Кардиология. - 2012. - №1. - С. 4-14.][Латфуллин И.А. Клиническая аритмология. - М.: Кардиология, 2002. - 372 с.][Олофинская И.Е. Операции на сердце с искусственным кровообращением у больных пожилого возраста: факторы риска, прогноз // Кардиология. - 2008. - №8. - С. 76-81.][Семакова Е.И., Ерофеев С.Н. Прогностическое значение дисперсии интервала Q-T и вариабельности сердечного ритма при остром инфаркте миокарда // Вестн. новых мед. технол. - 2000. - №1. - С. 61-63.]